RT @theresphysics: @JamesGDyke @peteirvine @rustneversleepz This paper claims to be surveying relevant experts, and the results would seem…
@JamesGDyke @peteirvine @rustneversleepz This paper claims to be surveying relevant experts, and the results would seem to suggest that they're not particularly optimistic (Figure 6, for example). https://t.co/VkhE76a4VS
@hausfath @chrisnelder @MLiebreich @_HannahRitchie For comparison, in a survey of IAMC experts (ie, WG3) 46% projected a Paris implementation (akin to what we call today "current policies") emissions levels of SSP1-2.6 Ho et al 2019 https://t.co/IrIOXmQzC
@climatedynamics @AdrianRaftery1 @DarganF @hausfath Here is an interesting one on which scenario is more probably based one expert assessment: https://t.co/ewIUkhRkeq
@tarahaelle @luciandipeso This is also a problem with climate change scenarios, which are presented to policymakers without probabilities. But you can elicit expert beliefs and infer the probabilities (https://t.co/YepT4gbd2s). Absolutely possible to put a
120 GtCO2/year emissions (as in RCP8.5) is unlikely. Indeed, experts elicitation of modelers put little weight on SSP5-RCP8.5 (https://t.co/FRNW7HGm4m) But the figure in your paper has high unlikely close to 5°C, which is very different (as you remark)
RT @jritch: @hausfath @HMike01 @Oliver_Geden @eroston Perhaps on Twitter there is more or less agreement the RCP8.5 emissions scenario is i…
@hausfath @HMike01 @Oliver_Geden @eroston Perhaps on Twitter there is more or less agreement the RCP8.5 emissions scenario is implausible but not among the Integrated Modeling Assessment Consortium per surveys in this paper: https://t.co/QsAdU5d8nS - look
@mammuthus @richardabetts @MLiebreich I realise that you were asking Richard, but if Table 2 of this paper is suggesting that 5% of expert think that the SSP5 baseline is possible, then that wouldn't be good enough for me. https://t.co/w3jJS9K3yR
RT @Peters_Glen: An expert elicitation of baseline CO₂ emission levels in 2100 finds that only 5% of respondents thought RCP8.5 was likely,…
@AukeHoekstra @theresphysics @chrisnelder @MLiebreich @gbrooksenglish @aaronhuertas @croselund @KHayhoe @rahmstorf @solar_chase @MichaelEMann @Sustainable2050 @NaomiOreskes @colinmckerrache @johnfocook @IEA @jritch Here is a thread on said article... https
@MLiebreich @DetlefvanVuuren @HMike01 @jim_bouldin @flimsin @Peters_Glen @jritch @IPCC_CH Explaining to Detlef what "the energy modeling community is trying to tell you" is rather funny given his role in said community. To wit: https://t.co/fgaSAFmXh4
RT @Peters_Glen: An expert elicitation of baseline CO₂ emission levels in 2100 finds that only 5% of respondents thought RCP8.5 was likely,…
RT @bradplumer: This study asked 20 experts to predict likely emissions are in 2100 under the Paris agreement: median answer was ~57 Gt CO2…
RT @Peters_Glen: An expert elicitation of baseline CO₂ emission levels in 2100 finds that only 5% of respondents thought RCP8.5 was likely,…
RT @Peters_Glen: An expert elicitation of baseline CO₂ emission levels in 2100 finds that only 5% of respondents thought RCP8.5 was likely,…
RT @Peters_Glen: An expert elicitation of baseline CO₂ emission levels in 2100 finds that only 5% of respondents thought RCP8.5 was likely,…
RT @Peters_Glen: An expert elicitation of baseline CO₂ emission levels in 2100 finds that only 5% of respondents thought RCP8.5 was likely,…
RT @Peters_Glen: An expert elicitation of baseline CO₂ emission levels in 2100 finds that only 5% of respondents thought RCP8.5 was likely,…
RT @Peters_Glen: An expert elicitation of baseline CO₂ emission levels in 2100 finds that only 5% of respondents thought RCP8.5 was likely,…
RT @Peters_Glen: An expert elicitation of baseline CO₂ emission levels in 2100 finds that only 5% of respondents thought RCP8.5 was likely,…
RT @Peters_Glen: An expert elicitation of baseline CO₂ emission levels in 2100 finds that only 5% of respondents thought RCP8.5 was likely,…
An expert elicitation of baseline CO₂ emission levels in 2100 finds that only 5% of respondents thought RCP8.5 was likely, but 14% thought emissions would be below 22GtCO₂/yr (that is, below the lowest no policy baseline)… 1/ https://t.co/pTa3uWw3y6 http
RT @bradplumer: This study asked 20 experts to predict likely emissions are in 2100 under the Paris agreement: median answer was ~57 Gt CO2…
RT @bradplumer: This study asked 20 experts to predict likely emissions are in 2100 under the Paris agreement: median answer was ~57 Gt CO2…
RT @bradplumer: This study asked 20 experts to predict likely emissions are in 2100 under the Paris agreement: median answer was ~57 Gt CO2…
RT @bradplumer: This study asked 20 experts to predict likely emissions are in 2100 under the Paris agreement: median answer was ~57 Gt CO2…
RT @bradplumer: This study asked 20 experts to predict likely emissions are in 2100 under the Paris agreement: median answer was ~57 Gt CO2…
RT @bradplumer: This study asked 20 experts to predict likely emissions are in 2100 under the Paris agreement: median answer was ~57 Gt CO2…
RT @bradplumer: This study asked 20 experts to predict likely emissions are in 2100 under the Paris agreement: median answer was ~57 Gt CO2…
RT @bradplumer: This study asked 20 experts to predict likely emissions are in 2100 under the Paris agreement: median answer was ~57 Gt CO2…
RT @bradplumer: This study asked 20 experts to predict likely emissions are in 2100 under the Paris agreement: median answer was ~57 Gt CO2…
RT @bradplumer: This study asked 20 experts to predict likely emissions are in 2100 under the Paris agreement: median answer was ~57 Gt CO2…
RT @bradplumer: This study asked 20 experts to predict likely emissions are in 2100 under the Paris agreement: median answer was ~57 Gt CO2…
RT @bradplumer: This study asked 20 experts to predict likely emissions are in 2100 under the Paris agreement: median answer was ~57 Gt CO2…
RT @bradplumer: This study asked 20 experts to predict likely emissions are in 2100 under the Paris agreement: median answer was ~57 Gt CO2…
RT @bradplumer: This study asked 20 experts to predict likely emissions are in 2100 under the Paris agreement: median answer was ~57 Gt CO2…
DIFFERENCES ON LONG-TERM EMISSIONS' probabilities between estimates and model-based calculations result from various factors including model restrictions and coverage of a wider set of factors, but also group think and the inabilit…https://t.co/rNTOivLC8W
RT @bradplumer: This study asked 20 experts to predict likely emissions are in 2100 under the Paris agreement: median answer was ~57 Gt CO2…
RT @bradplumer: This study asked 20 experts to predict likely emissions are in 2100 under the Paris agreement: median answer was ~57 Gt CO2…
RT @bradplumer: This study asked 20 experts to predict likely emissions are in 2100 under the Paris agreement: median answer was ~57 Gt CO2…
RT @bradplumer: This study asked 20 experts to predict likely emissions are in 2100 under the Paris agreement: median answer was ~57 Gt CO2…
RT @bradplumer: This study asked 20 experts to predict likely emissions are in 2100 under the Paris agreement: median answer was ~57 Gt CO2…
RT @bradplumer: This study asked 20 experts to predict likely emissions are in 2100 under the Paris agreement: median answer was ~57 Gt CO2…
RT @tavoni_massimo: They did already. SSP1, 2 and 3 were judged of comparable likelihood. SSP4 and 5 much less so. bottom line (not very in…
RT @bradplumer: This study asked 20 experts to predict likely emissions are in 2100 under the Paris agreement: median answer was ~57 Gt CO2…
RT @bradplumer: This study asked 20 experts to predict likely emissions are in 2100 under the Paris agreement: median answer was ~57 Gt CO2…
RT @bradplumer: This study asked 20 experts to predict likely emissions are in 2100 under the Paris agreement: median answer was ~57 Gt CO2…
RT @bradplumer: This study asked 20 experts to predict likely emissions are in 2100 under the Paris agreement: median answer was ~57 Gt CO2…
RT @bradplumer: This study asked 20 experts to predict likely emissions are in 2100 under the Paris agreement: median answer was ~57 Gt CO2…
RT @bradplumer: This study asked 20 experts to predict likely emissions are in 2100 under the Paris agreement: median answer was ~57 Gt CO2…
RT @bradplumer: This study asked 20 experts to predict likely emissions are in 2100 under the Paris agreement: median answer was ~57 Gt CO2…
RT @bradplumer: This study asked 20 experts to predict likely emissions are in 2100 under the Paris agreement: median answer was ~57 Gt CO2…
RT @bradplumer: This study asked 20 experts to predict likely emissions are in 2100 under the Paris agreement: median answer was ~57 Gt CO2…
RT @bradplumer: This study asked 20 experts to predict likely emissions are in 2100 under the Paris agreement: median answer was ~57 Gt CO2…
RT @bradplumer: This study asked 20 experts to predict likely emissions are in 2100 under the Paris agreement: median answer was ~57 Gt CO2…
RT @bradplumer: This study asked 20 experts to predict likely emissions are in 2100 under the Paris agreement: median answer was ~57 Gt CO2…
RT @bradplumer: This study asked 20 experts to predict likely emissions are in 2100 under the Paris agreement: median answer was ~57 Gt CO2…
RT @bradplumer: This study asked 20 experts to predict likely emissions are in 2100 under the Paris agreement: median answer was ~57 Gt CO2…
RT @bradplumer: This study asked 20 experts to predict likely emissions are in 2100 under the Paris agreement: median answer was ~57 Gt CO2…
RT @bradplumer: This study asked 20 experts to predict likely emissions are in 2100 under the Paris agreement: median answer was ~57 Gt CO2…
RT @bradplumer: This study asked 20 experts to predict likely emissions are in 2100 under the Paris agreement: median answer was ~57 Gt CO2…
THIS INTERESTING PAPER suggests most integrated assessment modelers don't even believe RCP 8.5 (or SSP5) is plausible (~5%)… —how would climate policy discussions look different if RCP 8.5 were reclassified as a separate scenario for sensitivity analysis
RT @bradplumer: This study asked 20 experts to predict likely emissions are in 2100 under the Paris agreement: median answer was ~57 Gt CO2…
RT @bradplumer: This study asked 20 experts to predict likely emissions are in 2100 under the Paris agreement: median answer was ~57 Gt CO2…
RT @bradplumer: This study asked 20 experts to predict likely emissions are in 2100 under the Paris agreement: median answer was ~57 Gt CO2…
RT @bradplumer: This study asked 20 experts to predict likely emissions are in 2100 under the Paris agreement: median answer was ~57 Gt CO2…
RT @bradplumer: This study asked 20 experts to predict likely emissions are in 2100 under the Paris agreement: median answer was ~57 Gt CO2…
This study asked 20 experts to predict likely emissions are in 2100 under the Paris agreement: median answer was ~57 Gt CO2/year. That'd put us roughly in RCP6.0 territory — somewhere around 3°C of global warming (and still rising) by century's end. http
marcelcrok Posted... https://t.co/bNpfwk2N4o
@marcelcrok Posted... https://t.co/Jzk5XO7SWt
RT @tavoni_massimo: They did already. SSP1, 2 and 3 were judged of comparable likelihood. SSP4 and 5 much less so. bottom line (not very in…
They did already. SSP1, 2 and 3 were judged of comparable likelihood. SSP4 and 5 much less so. bottom line (not very innovative): average along the SSP diagonal.. https://t.co/JTYS7LqOq5
@JoGuetschow It will have to be based on expert judgement. There was a paper recently, which I still have not read... https://t.co/yoI4nH7ALw
Not all carbon dioxide emission scenarios are equally likely: a subjective expert assessment https://t.co/IIIeEV4o3s
RT @tavoni_massimo: Probablistic expert judgement of future emissions and #SSP likelihood. SSPs are not equally likely. Median close to SS…
RT @tavoni_massimo: Probablistic expert judgement of future emissions and #SSP likelihood. SSPs are not equally likely. Median close to SS…
RT @tavoni_massimo: Probablistic expert judgement of future emissions and #SSP likelihood. SSPs are not equally likely. Median close to SS…
RT @tavoni_massimo: Probablistic expert judgement of future emissions and #SSP likelihood. SSPs are not equally likely. Median close to SS…
Probablistic expert judgement of future emissions and #SSP likelihood. SSPs are not equally likely. Median close to SSP2, below recent model comparison of IAMs paper accessible at https://t.co/AaoAWRbsZn https://t.co/LIOB1lOiBN
Not all carbon dioxide emission scenarios are equally likely: a subjective expert assessment https://t.co/q7MO4uyW11 #climatechange