Title |
Predicting the occurrence of major adverse cardiac events within 30 days of a vascular surgery: an empirical comparison of the minimum p value method and ROC curve approach using individual patient data meta-analysis
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Published in |
SpringerPlus, March 2016
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DOI | 10.1186/s40064-016-1936-8 |
Pubmed ID | |
Authors |
Thuva Vanniyasingam, Reitze N. Rodseth, Giovanna A. Lurati Buse, Daniel Bolliger, Christoph S. Burkhart, Brian H. Cuthbertson, Simon C. Gibson, Elisabeth Mahla, David W. Leibowitz, Bruce M. Biccard, Lehana Thabane |
Abstract |
We aimed to compare the minimum p value method and the area under the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve approach to categorize continuous biomarkers for the prediction of postoperative 30-day major adverse cardiac events in noncardiac vascular surgery patients. Individual-patient data from six cohorts reporting B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) or N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NTproBNP) were obtained. These biomarkers were dichotomized using the minimum p value method and compared with previously reported ROC curve-derived thresholds using logistic regression analysis. A final prediction model was developed, internally validated, and assessed for its sensitivity to clustering effects. Finally, a preoperative risk score system was proposed. Thresholds identified by the minimum p value method and ROC curve approach were 115.57 pg/ml (p < 0.001) and 116 pg/ml for BNP, and 241.7 pg/ml (p = 0.001) and 277.5 pg/ml for NTproBNP, respectively. The minimum p value thresholds were slightly stronger predictors based on our logistic regression analysis. The final model included a composite predictor of the minimum p value method's BNP and NTproBNP thresholds [odds ratio (OR) = 8.5, p < 0.001], surgery type (OR = 2.5, p = 0.002), and diabetes (OR = 2.1, p = 0.015). Preoperative risks using the scoring system ranged from 2 to 49 %. The minimum p value method and ROC curve approach identify similar optimal thresholds. We propose to replace the revised cardiac risk index with our risk score system for individual-specific preoperative risk stratification after noncardiac nonvascular surgery. |
Mendeley readers
Geographical breakdown
Country | Count | As % |
---|---|---|
Unknown | 36 | 100% |
Demographic breakdown
Readers by professional status | Count | As % |
---|---|---|
Researcher | 7 | 19% |
Student > Master | 6 | 17% |
Student > Doctoral Student | 3 | 8% |
Lecturer > Senior Lecturer | 2 | 6% |
Student > Ph. D. Student | 2 | 6% |
Other | 8 | 22% |
Unknown | 8 | 22% |
Readers by discipline | Count | As % |
---|---|---|
Medicine and Dentistry | 18 | 50% |
Arts and Humanities | 2 | 6% |
Social Sciences | 2 | 6% |
Nursing and Health Professions | 2 | 6% |
Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology | 1 | 3% |
Other | 2 | 6% |
Unknown | 9 | 25% |