We also published a series of papers where we built a model (https://t.co/BrFdKzDk4B) that included voluntary responses to the spread of a virus (we thought of flu or norovirus).
Published 10 yrs ago: "The worst outcome arises when control is attempted, but not cautiously enough to cause the epidemic to be suppressed. [...] a control that is too weak or based upon inaccurate knowledge, may give a worse outcome than doing nothing."
@snj_1970 @whippletom Read our 2012 paper, https://t.co/0XEg5zE9E0 in which we showed that the "middle ground" strategy is the worst solution. Instead, if the epidemic can be stopped, it should be stopped by the strongest measure available. If not, we sho
We said it in our 2012 article with @savimaharaj https://t.co/UnU4BgndaO https://t.co/fTHNit6WRS
@michaelmina_lab My main work is on plant pests and pathogens; I also did a paper on H1N1 pandemic flu, but I am most proud of https://t.co/UnU4BgndaO led by @savimaharaj which is now my second most cited paper having just beaten https://t.co/GJVZKsIBtf wi
RT @JoePajak: Social Distancing As Adam Kleczkowski, @aklecz, and Savi Maharaj, @savimaharaj, at University of Stirling, @StirUni, wrote 9…
RT @JoePajak: Social Distancing As Adam Kleczkowski, @aklecz, and Savi Maharaj, @savimaharaj, at University of Stirling, @StirUni, wrote 9…
Social Distancing As Adam Kleczkowski, @aklecz, and Savi Maharaj, @savimaharaj, at University of Stirling, @StirUni, wrote 9yrs ago: 'The worst outcome arises when control is attempted, but not cautiously enough to cause the epidemic to be suppressed.'
I am actually amazed at how well our 2012 paper https://t.co/0XEg5zmyMs predicted the pandemic. Using a simple model looking at individual decisions we predicted that the #ZeroCovid strategy is economically optimal for highly infectious diseases. /15
RT @KirstenThommes: @Boris25309876 @piratomat @AlKo12531645 Man findet ja die lustigsten Dinge, wenn man danach sucht, wie das so mit Aha+w…
@Boris25309876 @piratomat @AlKo12531645 Man findet ja die lustigsten Dinge, wenn man danach sucht, wie das so mit Aha+whatever ist. https://t.co/fhBEQqlCp3
@kayketz @Micrograma @ambjg @kurteichenwald those circumstances. Studies like this one support that. Yet ppl still pretend lockdowns work and we needed stricter ones and noncompliance is the problem. No. Once virus has spread to even 1%, NPIs and lockdowns
@LynsightTweets If a disease is very highly infectious, social distancing may have no effect, or may require an unfeasibly high degree of caution in order to be effective. In these cases, doing nothing will be a more cost-effective strategy than using soci
The Social Distance Corollary is a theory in communication research that concerns the tendency of people to perceive others to be more susceptible to media influence than they actually are. @ABSCBNNews @gmanews @News5AKSYON
...@ABSCBNNews @News5AKSYON @gmanews
Controlling epidemic spread by social distancing: Do it well or not at all https://t.co/zmd8SUTr5u
"Controlling epidemic spread by social distancing: Do it well or not at all" #RIVM #anderhalvemeterdictatuur https://t.co/LfT90i2pwZ
It's not an official claim of course. It's just my view in this matter and why I think the state epidemiologist of Sweden, who is supposed to be an expert, could be right. There are very few studies about this subject. I found 1, from before covid: https:/
@GidMK @Adam_Creighton I have seen this paper a lot: https://t.co/O4rWrfD6g7 It appears well thought out, but also has drawbacks, in that it ignores adaptation to the situation at hand and also gives every contact in the model the same value...
My thinking on borders closures was based on this: https://t.co/lNZVJPzfLW And on lockdowns was initially based on this: https://t.co/VlHNnsrf5n And elements like this: https://t.co/1TWdAALh7Z For a commentary on contact isolation: https://t.co/hJvKZspD
@EWErickson I think a lot about the conclusions of this 2012 study. https://t.co/1VzfW9SRmX
RT @MonsieurkOff: BioMed Central : Distanciation Sociale, le faire correctement ou alors PAS DU TOUT L'OMS a toujours su que ces mesures ne…
@BohringerPaul @OKehrl @Karl_Lauterbach Siehe hier: https://t.co/O4rWrfD6g7
"The worst outcome arises when control is attempted, but not cautiously enough to cause the epidemic to be suppressed ... a control that is too weak or based upon inaccurate knowledge, may give a worse outcome than doing nothing." #ncpol https://t.co/1VzfW
RT @jan_snauwaert: https://t.co/OdGDGtdznN "Depending on the characteristics of the epidemic and on the relative economic importance of mak…
https://t.co/OdGDGtdznN "Depending on the characteristics of the epidemic and on the relative economic importance of making contacts versus avoiding infection, the optimal control is one of two extremes: either to adopt a highly cautious control, 1/3
TL;DR .... if social distancing is being considered, do it well, or not at all. Are we doing it right or should we go back to work because we are making insufficient difference in the outcome? #COVIDー19 https://t.co/CMplAA12JV
ソーシャルディスタンスの効果が結果的に負になる可能性もあるらしいけど結局パラメータ依存だし素人には難しい https://t.co/QvI6EejyNa
RT @imartincorena: …but hardly reflective of the extraordinary time we are in. We can learn about other countries’ suffering, we do not nee…
Controlling epidemic spread by social distancing: Do it well or not at all "The worst outcome arises when control is attempted, but not cautiously enough to cause the epidemic to be suppressed" https://t.co/ENADbFPF89
RT @BlackHealthLab: A relevant article detailing the importance of social distancing and the risks if not done properly. https://t.co/2ohjk…
A relevant article detailing the importance of social distancing and the risks if not done properly. https://t.co/2ohjkTUSFN
@TomPresti @colinm4c @NateSilver538 Hello! Based on a few reviews it seems like social distancing works to prevent disease spread, unless one reactively distances for an insufficient period (e.g. staying at home for a week then thinking you're safe) https
RT @imartincorena: …but hardly reflective of the extraordinary time we are in. We can learn about other countries’ suffering, we do not nee…
RT @imartincorena: …but hardly reflective of the extraordinary time we are in. We can learn about other countries’ suffering, we do not nee…
RT @imartincorena: …but hardly reflective of the extraordinary time we are in. We can learn about other countries’ suffering, we do not nee…
RT @imartincorena: …but hardly reflective of the extraordinary time we are in. We can learn about other countries’ suffering, we do not nee…
RT @imartincorena: …but hardly reflective of the extraordinary time we are in. We can learn about other countries’ suffering, we do not nee…
RT @imartincorena: …but hardly reflective of the extraordinary time we are in. We can learn about other countries’ suffering, we do not nee…
RT @imartincorena: …but hardly reflective of the extraordinary time we are in. We can learn about other countries’ suffering, we do not nee…
“We can learn about other countries’ suffering, we do not need to experience it!” And yet, it seems we chose the latter.
RT @imartincorena: …but hardly reflective of the extraordinary time we are in. We can learn about other countries’ suffering, we do not nee…
@karenwi17092279 Oh, just to be cheerful, academic data argues that weak social distancing is actually worse than either efficient SD or the 'nuclear option' of going for herd immunity via mass infection https://t.co/iT41A6ijS8
RT @imartincorena: …but hardly reflective of the extraordinary time we are in. We can learn about other countries’ suffering, we do not nee…
RT @imartincorena: …but hardly reflective of the extraordinary time we are in. We can learn about other countries’ suffering, we do not nee…
RT @imartincorena: …but hardly reflective of the extraordinary time we are in. We can learn about other countries’ suffering, we do not nee…
RT @imartincorena: …but hardly reflective of the extraordinary time we are in. We can learn about other countries’ suffering, we do not nee…
@fernandeznorona @EnriqueAlfaroR De nuevo señor, aquí está la información, de ser necesario, porque no tenga la capacidad entenderlo le puedo hacer un resumen. Por cierto, no es un estudio hecho a toda prisa para esta pandemia, es del 2012. La ciencia es
RT @imartincorena: …but hardly reflective of the extraordinary time we are in. We can learn about other countries’ suffering, we do not nee…
#openaccess: Controlling epidemic spread by #SocialDistancing: Do it well or not at all https://t.co/jFmyxxMhvg via our friends @BioMedCentral
…but hardly reflective of the extraordinary time we are in. We can learn about other countries’ suffering, we do not need to experience it! [10/11] https://t.co/3FmaELJqDU
@theosanderson @james_t_webber Perhaps relevant for their thinking given that the authors are advising them: https://t.co/ECpPBXPFNI
Research seems to indicate that if social distancing isn't taken to an extreme, we see a worst-case scenario of high-infection rate with prolonged epidemic lifespan. Fair question: Did our governments act quickly enough to protect students? Perhaps. https:
RT @grumpygrumpyowl: /These results have implications for the design of control strategies using social distancing: a control that is too w…
/These results have implications for the design of control strategies using social distancing: a control that is too weak or based upon inaccurate knowledge, may give a worse outcome than doing nothing./ https://t.co/3eqJS1MXd9
@aetiology @CIDRAP hmm, good point. that does seem to be takeaway from @savimaharaj & @aklecz in @BMC_series: “Controlling epidemic spread by social distancing: Do it well or not at all“ https://t.co/dturYTC0Bu @aetiology what data would we need to t
Controlling epidemic spread by social distancing: Do it well or not at all http://t.co/ZuUgtHmB #DigDisDet
Yes! RT @kasshout Controlling epidemic spread by social distancing: Do it well or not at all http://t.co/AGK1WKep #DigDisDet
Research: Controlling epidemic spread through social distancing: Do it well or not at all http://t.co/2O14msxt
Controlling epidemic spread by social distancing: Do it well or not at all http://t.co/ZuUgtHmB #DigDisDet