When Choice of Data Matters: Analyses of U.S. Crime Trends, 1973–2012

RT @RottenInDenmark: Every theory for the Great Crime Decline kind of falls apart when you realize that crime data is garbage https://t.co/…

RT @RottenInDenmark: Every theory for the Great Crime Decline kind of falls apart when you realize that crime data is garbage https://t.co/…

RT @RottenInDenmark: Every theory for the Great Crime Decline kind of falls apart when you realize that crime data is garbage https://t.co/…

RT @RottenInDenmark: Every theory for the Great Crime Decline kind of falls apart when you realize that crime data is garbage https://t.co/…

RT @RottenInDenmark: Every theory for the Great Crime Decline kind of falls apart when you realize that crime data is garbage https://t.co/…

RT @RottenInDenmark: Every theory for the Great Crime Decline kind of falls apart when you realize that crime data is garbage https://t.co/…

RT @RottenInDenmark: Every theory for the Great Crime Decline kind of falls apart when you realize that crime data is garbage https://t.co/…

RT @RottenInDenmark: Every theory for the Great Crime Decline kind of falls apart when you realize that crime data is garbage https://t.co/…

RT @RottenInDenmark: Every theory for the Great Crime Decline kind of falls apart when you realize that crime data is garbage https://t.co/…

RT @RottenInDenmark: Every theory for the Great Crime Decline kind of falls apart when you realize that crime data is garbage https://t.co/…

RT @RottenInDenmark: Every theory for the Great Crime Decline kind of falls apart when you realize that crime data is garbage https://t.co/…

RT @RottenInDenmark: Every theory for the Great Crime Decline kind of falls apart when you realize that crime data is garbage https://t.co/…

RT @RottenInDenmark: Every theory for the Great Crime Decline kind of falls apart when you realize that crime data is garbage https://t.co/…

RT @RottenInDenmark: Every theory for the Great Crime Decline kind of falls apart when you realize that crime data is garbage https://t.co/…

RT @RottenInDenmark: Every theory for the Great Crime Decline kind of falls apart when you realize that crime data is garbage https://t.co/…

RT @RottenInDenmark: Every theory for the Great Crime Decline kind of falls apart when you realize that crime data is garbage https://t.co/…

RT @RottenInDenmark: Every theory for the Great Crime Decline kind of falls apart when you realize that crime data is garbage https://t.co/…

RT @RottenInDenmark: Every theory for the Great Crime Decline kind of falls apart when you realize that crime data is garbage https://t.co/…

RT @RottenInDenmark: Every theory for the Great Crime Decline kind of falls apart when you realize that crime data is garbage https://t.co/…

RT @RottenInDenmark: Every theory for the Great Crime Decline kind of falls apart when you realize that crime data is garbage https://t.co/…

RT @RottenInDenmark: Every theory for the Great Crime Decline kind of falls apart when you realize that crime data is garbage https://t.co/…

RT @RottenInDenmark: Every theory for the Great Crime Decline kind of falls apart when you realize that crime data is garbage https://t.co/…

RT @RottenInDenmark: Every theory for the Great Crime Decline kind of falls apart when you realize that crime data is garbage https://t.co/…

RT @RottenInDenmark: Every theory for the Great Crime Decline kind of falls apart when you realize that crime data is garbage https://t.co/…

RT @RottenInDenmark: Every theory for the Great Crime Decline kind of falls apart when you realize that crime data is garbage https://t.co/…

RT @RottenInDenmark: Every theory for the Great Crime Decline kind of falls apart when you realize that crime data is garbage https://t.co/…

RT @RottenInDenmark: Every theory for the Great Crime Decline kind of falls apart when you realize that crime data is garbage https://t.co/…

RT @RottenInDenmark: Every theory for the Great Crime Decline kind of falls apart when you realize that crime data is garbage https://t.co/…

Every theory for the Great Crime Decline kind of falls apart when you realize that crime data is garbage https://t.co/5afHQRj7Z8 https://t.co/Islj5nVOUY

@LoneStr06411351 @SomeDUD47226334 @BreezyScroll But then you use a different data set and the coloration disappears.https://t.co/kWiX2ODt0s The drop in crime rate has been attributed to any number of factors. The population aged. Abortion was made lega

@dsemenzcrim I love this paper suggesting the *great* crime decline is an artifact of using UCR data. As a field, we should be talking more about why crime has been declining since the early 1970s, not the 1990s. https://t.co/1yGKMlF4Vt

Best explanation I've seen of the two measures and why NCVS is better for serious violence: https://t.co/tvMRPqIkYO

@CaptainInnovate Kevin Drum is a journalist, not a criminologist. I've just done a quick search and it appears at least part of the reason you don't see this much in the literature is because the correlation only works in reported crime, not victimisation

@davidshor @JakeAnbinder This study is pretty compelling and to me suggests we simply should not use UCR violent-crime numbers for any kind of longitudinal or even panel analysis. https://t.co/MJSCzLUQnS

In the NCVS data, the 1990s crime drop was merely a catch-up to a long-term downward trend following a short-lived detour. So with apologies to Zimring's "The Great Crime Decline," I'm going to write my book and title it "The All Right Crime Decline" 😆

What happens when the data we rely is not very reliable? Big problem in social science? https://t.co/JJWFFkuV3d https://t.co/lklY6nmqLH https://t.co/OXBxrZcXxe

And of course if that study is right and the non-murder UCR data are simply unreliable .... yikes for a lot of other research. https://t.co/tvMRPqIkYO

RT @HitchMagee: Interesting in that it coincides with the "start" of mass incarceration.... https://t.co/bQwQ9bX8FT

Interesting in that it coincides with the "start" of mass incarceration....

And it ain't just violence that has been on a general decline since 1973... https://t.co/1yGKMlF4Vt https://t.co/2pRq1ZuhgQ

To study "long-term trends in serious violent crime in the U.S. since the 1970s, the weight of the evidence indicates that the NCVS violence data and homicide data are likely to produce more valid findings than the UCR nonfatal violence data." https://t.co

RT @phl43: This also seems interesting: https://t.co/nT3778hr38. https://t.co/mvXZKl9iUQ

This also seems interesting: https://t.co/nT3778hr38. https://t.co/mvXZKl9iUQ

@TruthInSynth https://t.co/4wEyKoqLou

Linked study really important for thinking about any analysis of crime trends using UCR, with a focus on lead/crime theory. (Not mentioned but it also affects claims that divergence between murder & ag assault trends happened bc trauma centers got bett

Important reminder and good context for new victimization data. Full Lauritsen et al. JQC paper here: https://t.co/3KbtH4hL8Y https://t.co/BxrL5dvfpy

@xenocryptsite Have you seen this? Significance of leaded gas might be artifact of choice of crime data https://t.co/0xBrhYZeIS

RT @JohnKRoman: Remember when everyone was hot on the theory that removal of lead from gas reduced crime? Paper says: probably not: https:/…

Hmmm, interesting. https://t.co/AhTKPtGh7w

Remember when everyone was hot on the theory that removal of lead from gas reduced crime? Paper says: probably not: https://t.co/Em5D4KULZl

This is the new study: https://t.co/5jUAQBK9gL The lead section in the above linked Atlantic article,

@JohnFPfaff @alexbelkins Not crazy. I've been spending a lot of time w this article lately (h/t @chrisuggen): https://t.co/Rl0N2T9nbX

RT @chrisuggen: Lauritsen: is link b/w lead exposure & violence a UCR artifact? Not seen for NCVS, homicide. https://t.co/34UZfmkyCY https:…

RT @chrisuggen: Lauritsen: is link b/w lead exposure & violence a UCR artifact? Not seen for NCVS, homicide. https://t.co/34UZfmkyCY https:…

Lauritsen: is link b/w lead exposure & violence a UCR artifact? Not seen for NCVS, homicide. https://t.co/34UZfmkyCY https://t.co/2biLG1ocMn

@behnmned @Bottle_Poe @eltonselfgmail1 I would refer you here: https://t.co/tv8ohiMvWo

.@JohnFPfaff How much is this a product of changes in crime reporting and recording, rather than actual crime rates? https://t.co/g02IGtBv48