The lowest fertility rates in the world? Evidence from the 2015 Chinese 1% sample census

RT @Nazboleon: @Tinkzorg South Korea = 4th world highest density (2,5x North Korea). It's a better explanation of fertility rate than Hell…

RT @Nazboleon: @Tinkzorg South Korea = 4th world highest density (2,5x North Korea). It's a better explanation of fertility rate than Hell…

@Tinkzorg South Korea = 4th world highest density (2,5x North Korea). It's a better explanation of fertility rate than Hell Joseon social model China isn't better (TFR in urban areas is 0.9) https://t.co/HYS5PceaFr Italy/Portugal/Bosnia/Poland/Spain have s

@PragmaticArts @simongerman600 Probably already has. https://t.co/Pj6wMm8omc

The lowest fertility rates in the world? Evidence from the 2015 Chinese 1% sample census Zhigang Guo, Stuart Gietel-Basten & Baochang Gu 2019 https://t.co/CCjXsIoJiU https://t.co/UgPDCjx0nE https://t.co/B7gsovstJD

@Scholars_Stage The current census is the most important statistical event in a decade, like proper calculation from the previous 1% census in 2015 showed that tfr was close to 1 https://t.co/slmsAztHSg

@whyvert Yes, but they changed family planning in 2016, it led to different tfr parity and more births from older mothers it seems, but the effect will be gone very soon with the high probability, I expect lower and close to pessimistic UN report from past

@Benoit03157452 @KirkegaardEmil If the Chinese will publish normal stats from the 2020 census (they are stopping publishing detailed dem information in recent times, may not publish for strategic reasons now), it may be really bad too. From 1% survey in 2

(maybe they would come here with just higher income and more educational achievement as other EA countries) Here is for China (we are still waiting for survey of 2020 with full population, this is 1% from 2015): https://t.co/slmsAztHSg

RT @devarbol: People often report a 1.6 fertility rate for China. It's a middle level in the current world, generally higher than East Asi…

@0K_ultra @BDSixsmith @SilverVVulpes In every single East Asian country, from Taiwan and mainland to Japan and SK and city states: https://t.co/slmsAztHSg

@OSmicard @whyvert the entire china has probably a tfr with as a lower bound 1, and probably 1.2-1.4 at this point (we will know certainly from the full population survey in 2021, if they do it, they are cutting on publishing demographic information somewh

My own read of things is that 1.6 is turning into the upper estimate; seems like 1.2-1.5 is more probable.

People often report a 1.6 fertility rate for China. It's a middle level in the current world, generally higher than East Asian neighbours who have a really low one, near 1 But there is a most doomer paper based on 1% census from 2015, in which TFR is ~1

Guo ZG, Gietel-Basten S and Gu BC (2019) The lowest fertility rates in the world? Evidence from the 2015 Chinese 1% sample census. https://t.co/QOXwdHpwAj.

RT @catitude: 中國當局近來停止公佈生育率，但學界還有辦法從其他數據計算出真正的生育率。 https://t.co/vj03EB5tVt

中國當局近來停止公佈生育率，但學界還有辦法從其他數據計算出真正的生育率。

RT @stuartbasten: Does #China have the lowest fertility rate in the world? According to the 2015 1% mini-census it does. Our new paper expl…

RT @stuartbasten: Does #China have the lowest fertility rate in the world? According to the 2015 1% mini-census it does. Our new paper expl…

RT @stuartbasten: Does #China have the lowest fertility rate in the world? According to the 2015 1% mini-census it does. Our new paper expl…

RT @stuartbasten: Does #China have the lowest fertility rate in the world? According to the 2015 1% mini-census it does. Our new paper expl…

RT @stuartbasten: Does #China have the lowest fertility rate in the world? According to the 2015 1% mini-census it does. Our new paper expl…

RT @stuartbasten: Does #China have the lowest fertility rate in the world? According to the 2015 1% mini-census it does. Our new paper expl…

RT @stuartbasten: Does #China have the lowest fertility rate in the world? According to the 2015 1% mini-census it does. Our new paper expl…

RT @stuartbasten: Does #China have the lowest fertility rate in the world? According to the 2015 1% mini-census it does. Our new paper expl…

RT @stuartbasten: Does #China have the lowest fertility rate in the world? According to the 2015 1% mini-census it does. Our new paper expl…

Does #China have the lowest fertility rate in the world? According to the 2015 1% mini-census it does. Our new paper explores the data and the consequences - https://t.co/zKnsDeofQy #demography #population