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Development of a new scoring system to predict 5-year incident diabetes risk in middle-aged and older Chinese

Overview of attention for article published in Acta Diabetologica, September 2017
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Title
Development of a new scoring system to predict 5-year incident diabetes risk in middle-aged and older Chinese
Published in
Acta Diabetologica, September 2017
DOI 10.1007/s00592-017-1047-1
Pubmed ID
Authors

Xu Han, Jing Wang, Yaru Li, Hua Hu, Xiulou Li, Jing Yuan, Ping Yao, Xiaoping Miao, Sheng Wei, Youjie Wang, Yuan Liang, Xiaomin Zhang, Huan Guo, An Pan, Handong Yang, Tangchun Wu, Meian He

Abstract

The aim of this study was to develop a new risk score system to predict 5-year incident diabetes risk among middle-aged and older Chinese population. This prospective study included 17,690 individuals derived from the Dongfeng-Tongji cohort. Participants were recruited in 2008 and were followed until October 2013. Incident diabetes was defined as self-reported clinician diagnosed diabetes, fasting glucose ≥7.0 mmol/l, or the use of insulin or oral hypoglycemic agent. A total of 1390 incident diabetic cases were diagnosed during the follow-up period. β-Coefficients were derived from Cox proportional hazard regression model and were used to calculate the risk score. The diabetes risk score includes BMI, fasting glucose, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, current smoking status, and family history of diabetes. The β-coefficients of these variables ranged from 0.139 to 1.914, and the optimal cutoff value was 1.5. The diabetes risk score was calculated by multiplying the β-coefficients of the significant variables by 10 and rounding to the nearest integer. The score ranges from 0 to 36. The area under the receiver operating curve of the score was 0.751. At the optimal cutoff value of 15, the sensitivity and specificity were 65.6 and 72.9%, respectively. Based upon these risk factors, this model had the highest discrimination compared with several commonly used diabetes prediction models. The newly established diabetes risk score with six parameters appears to be a reliable screening tool to predict 5-year risk of incident diabetes in a middle-aged and older Chinese population.

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Mendeley readers

The data shown below were compiled from readership statistics for 22 Mendeley readers of this research output. Click here to see the associated Mendeley record.

Geographical breakdown

Country Count As %
Unknown 22 100%

Demographic breakdown

Readers by professional status Count As %
Researcher 2 9%
Librarian 1 5%
Professor 1 5%
Other 1 5%
Student > Master 1 5%
Other 1 5%
Unknown 15 68%
Readers by discipline Count As %
Medicine and Dentistry 3 14%
Nursing and Health Professions 1 5%
Pharmacology, Toxicology and Pharmaceutical Science 1 5%
Social Sciences 1 5%
Agricultural and Biological Sciences 1 5%
Other 0 0%
Unknown 15 68%