Multi-model comparison of the economic and energy implications for China and India in an international climate regime

Daniel J. A. Johansson, Paul L. Lucas, Matthias Weitzel, Erik O. Ahlgren, A. B Bazaz, Wenying Chen, Michel G. J. den Elzen, Joydeep Ghosh, Maria Grahn, Qiao-Mei Liang, Sonja Peterson, Basanta K. Pradhan, Bas J. van Ruijven, P. R. Shukla, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Yi-Ming Wei

This paper presents a modeling comparison on how stabilization of global climate change at about 2 °C above the pre-industrial level could affect economic and energy systems development in China and India. Seven General Equilibrium (CGE) and energy system models on either the global or national scale are soft-linked and harmonized with respect to population and economic assumptions. We simulate a climate regime, based on long-term convergence of per capita carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, starting from the emission pledges presented in the Copenhagen Accord to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and allowing full emissions trading between countries. Under the climate regime, Indian emission allowances are allowed to grow more than the Chinese allowances, due to the per capita convergence rule and the higher population growth in India. Economic and energy implications not only differ among the two countries, but also across model types. Decreased energy intensity is the most important abatement approach in the CGE models, while decreased carbon intensity is most important in the energy system models. The reduction in carbon intensity is mostly achieved through deployment of carbon capture and storage, renewable energy sources and nuclear energy. The economic impacts are generally higher in China than in India, due to higher 2010-2050 cumulative abatement in China and the fact that India can offset more of its abatement cost though international emission trading.