@RS4472 @djspratt @PIK_Climate Well explained here and by @kzhill. I’m sure most practitioners know this, but apparently few academics and teachers. That’s a major problem. https://t.co/WRZejEzIwZ
RT @_ppmv: #DontLookUp IRL: Richard Alley on the pdf of sea level rise. @kzhill observes that scientists want to be "right," while planners…
@fubits @Ausb_Eins @PaulHBeckwith Meine Interpretation, aber sehr nice Zeichnung von Richard Alley hier, um zu zeigen, dass das nicht abwegig ist: mit @kzhill https://t.co/WRZejEzIwZ
@clv101 @pmagn Absolutely, yes, we know sea level can rise at a rate of 1 m per 20 years for centuries. Good reference: https://t.co/WRZejEzIwZ
What ChatGPT4 gets wrong: uncertainty (confidence intervals) are vast. You may see 7 m sea level rise by 2200, but also easily by 2100. We’ve share many threads about the mechanisms; more public and sustained scientific attention is needed. @globalhlthtwit
@malvernkite @globalhlthtwit 2100 is the expected lifetime of a child born today. Yes this is happening. Expect about 1 m sea level rise every 20 years. https://t.co/WRZejEzIwZ
RT @_ppmv: @HyperHydr0 Great idea! Good reference—Schellnhuber 2011 calling for the same. Only how? We’re already sidelined when we even me…
@oohussey @ZEEQUEUE @ECOWARRIORSS Could be this one. https://t.co/WRZejEAgmx
RT @_ppmv: #DontLookUp IRL: Richard Alley on the pdf of sea level rise. @kzhill observes that scientists want to be "right," while planners…
RT @_ppmv: #DontLookUp IRL: Richard Alley on the pdf of sea level rise. @kzhill observes that scientists want to be "right," while planners…
@bobkopp @benmsanderson @mudwaterclimate @climatedynamics @kzhill put this well on diverse occasions. You can't use general psychology or 'common sense' thinking (as climate scientists do all the time) to assess policy, it's not how law, policy and decisio
@NiranjanAjit @xr_cambridge @coxypm @PFriedling @hausfath @ThomasMPaulson1 @RisetoClimate @ProfSteveKeen @MichaelEMann @ClimateOfGavin @SaleemulHuq @markhertsgaard Already after COP15, Schellnhuber (2010 / 2011) called for analyzing the risk of “at least e
@ItsTheAtmospher @drvolts @chriscartw83 Thanks ITA! You're in good company - Schellnhuber 2010, free access https://t.co/IBZMOwbJLh https://t.co/WRZejEzIwZ
I’m sorry for all who follow this account regularly. You must be so bored of repetition - but thanks! 🤣❤️
@BernhardIsopp @ClimateBen @theresphysics Same - but always appreciate your voice Bernhard! I’ve found it helpful to distinguish between professionals’ and scientists’ understanding of uncertainty and risk management. https://t.co/WRZejEzIwZ
Fundamentally, we face a little-known risk management problem. Scientists and the IPCC think in the language of probabilities—and society amplifies their findings—; but scientific understanding of risk is the exact opposite of professional risk management.
RT @_ppmv: #DontLookUp IRL: Richard Alley on the pdf of sea level rise. @kzhill observes that scientists want to be "right," while planners…
RT @_ppmv: @JKSteinberger @ClimateHuman 1. By professionals I mean the professional classes, like lawyers, execs, planners, who speak diffe…
@JKSteinberger @ClimateHuman 1. By professionals I mean the professional classes, like lawyers, execs, planners, who speak different language than modelers and climate scientists - because they solve different problems. See here. If we want to change syste
RT @_ppmv: @rdlarter @widescape @MoDaHomosapien @Jasonvj2005 @camoranesi_jabo @climate_ice @PaulHBeckwith @AndriMagnason Many policymakers…
@rdlarter @widescape @MoDaHomosapien @Jasonvj2005 @camoranesi_jabo @climate_ice @PaulHBeckwith @AndriMagnason Many policymakers even earnestly believe that they can govern the climate just like other policy fields. We're back to the original question - we
@HyperHydr0 Great idea! Good reference—Schellnhuber 2011 calling for the same. Only how? We’re already sidelined when we even mention “unknown known” risks (tacit knowledge), in the sense of @SFuntowicz. https://t.co/WRZejEzIwZ
RT @_ppmv: #DontLookUp IRL: Richard Alley on the pdf of sea level rise. @kzhill observes that scientists want to be "right," while planners…
RT @_ppmv: #DontLookUp IRL: Richard Alley on the pdf of sea level rise. @kzhill observes that scientists want to be "right," while planners…
RT @_ppmv: #DontLookUp IRL: Richard Alley on the pdf of sea level rise. @kzhill observes that scientists want to be "right," while planners…
#DontLookUp IRL: Richard Alley on the pdf of sea level rise. @kzhill observes that scientists want to be "right," while planners must be "not wrong." As Schellnhuber 2011 warned, the social pressure on scientists to avoid worst-case scenarios is a problem.