RT @NathanTankus: @TiltingatM3 @_TimBarker @gabriel_mathy oh forgot to link to it, here is the excellent Mathy paper those charts are from.…
RT @NathanTankus: @TiltingatM3 @_TimBarker @gabriel_mathy oh forgot to link to it, here is the excellent Mathy paper those charts are from.…
@TiltingatM3 @_TimBarker @gabriel_mathy oh forgot to link to it, here is the excellent Mathy paper those charts are from. It's focused on a different issue, the question of the long term unemployed. But that is a distinct issue from the overall unemploymen
RT @NathanTankus: Gah in my discussion with yall ( cc/ @_TimBarker @pigphilosophy @abenanav ) I totally forgot about @gabriel_mathy's excel…
@stevehouf Moves in the Beveridge curve post WWII are also relevant to focus on. Beveridge curve shifted out, post WWII just like today, but BC of 1950s resembled that of 1920s according to @gabriel_mathy https://t.co/LYLY5lalUC
@JHWeissmann @NathanTankus @besttrousers https://t.co/heDCnX5JjG The graphs in the screenshot are from figure 3
RT @NathanTankus: @sam_a_bell You're using the wrong stats in multiple respects. https://t.co/4yTupt4hyl
@IrvingSwisher @sam_a_bell These stats are totally wrong though. https://t.co/4yTupt4hyl
@sam_a_bell You're using the wrong stats in multiple respects. https://t.co/4yTupt4hyl
@rauchway @KevinMKruse @FredereFredere This graph includes emergency employment https://t.co/4yTupt4hyl
@dandolfa That series excludes "emergency relief workers" (i.e. it really should be corrected by the St. Louis Fed). measured unemployment in that series in June 1937 was about 5.4 percent. https://t.co/4yTupt4hyl
@DavidpStein @rauchway @StevenAttewell This thread even overstates the unemployment rate. Before the "Roosevelt recession" it got down to the 6 percent range. And the rate under discussion is like modern U5, not U3 so that "improves" the comparison further
@rauchway This thread even overstates the unemployment rate. Before the "Roosevelt recession" it got down to the 6 percent range. And the rate under discussion is like modern U5, not U3 so that "improves" the comparison further. https://t.co/2TGtVhfZag
RT @NathanTankus: Gah in my discussion with yall ( cc/ @_TimBarker @pigphilosophy @abenanav ) I totally forgot about @gabriel_mathy's excel…
Gah in my discussion with yall ( cc/ @_TimBarker @pigphilosophy @abenanav ) I totally forgot about @gabriel_mathy's excellent paper. He sticks with the "war ended it" framing but because it did end something- hysteresis, which is the focus of the paper. h
@econjared Isn't this a question for @gabriel_mathy ? https://t.co/upp0tGPgf0
@atanaspekanov @fsaraceno I liked this one: https://t.co/GzNnRuN1Ad
@Noahpinion @delong @ernietedeschi Ockham agrees. The assymetry between increases and decreases might well be caused by hysteresis: more long term unemployed who, for whatever reason, are shunned on the labor market. https://t.co/upp0tGPgf0 https://t.co/2h
RT @MerijnKnibbe: 4) How's that possible? Actually, the largest labor market rigidity might not be rules or easy welfare but unemployment i…
4) How's that possible? Actually, the largest labor market rigidity might not be rules or easy welfare but unemployment itself and especially high unemployment. High unemployment leads to long term unemployment which leads to unemployability https://t.co/
RT @MerijnKnibbe: 1) Important paper by Gabriel Mathy which shows that the largest structural rigidity of the labour market is.... long ter…
RT @MerijnKnibbe: 1) Important paper by Gabriel Mathy which shows that the largest structural rigidity of the labour market is.... long ter…
1) Important paper by Gabriel Mathy which shows that the largest structural rigidity of the labour market is.... long term unemployment. Once a shock causes long term unemployment to increase you're U will stay high and you need another shock to cure it. h